A key determinant of whether a system of UHC is feasible in a lower-middle income country like India is the cost. How did we determine costs. We took consumption data from the Railway Health Service Network, plugged unit pricing data from the NSSO and adjusted the consumption numbers against desirable consumption patterns using Canada as a model and then came up with a number per Indian per year. As you can see in the table here, this number is a little over Rs 6000. Multiplying by the population in 2030 (1500 million Indians) this works out to approximately Rs 900000 crore per annum for all of India. The current healthcare consumption (for a population of 1400 million) is around Rs 600000 crore. So we are looking at a 50% increase in costs due to implementation of UHC, although this figure is not adjusted for some of the cost savings possible through generic substitution for branded medical products and substantial reduction in costs due to waste, fraud and error. At current expenditure, we are at 4% of GDP. A 60% increase puts us at 6% of GDP, which is close to where many of the European OECD countries are at. A very manageable cost, given the massive benefits from increased productivity and improved prevention of NCDs.
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